Because Musk has allied with Trump, Amazon who is allied with deep DoD must compete for the high ground. -JP

Twenty-seven satellite took flight atop an Atlas V rocket, built by United Launch Alliance, just after 7 p.m. ET Monday from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

The launch kicks off the first installment for Amazon’s Project Kuiper, a plan to create a massive constellation of internet-beaming satellites. The effort is poised to compete directly with Starlink, the network offered by Elon Musk’s SpaceX that already has at least 4.6 million customers around the world.

Starlink and Project Kuiper are both part of an effort to transform global internet infrastructure. The networks aim to provide access to remote corners of the world where traditional broadband, which relies on underground cables, is lacking.

It’s an exceedingly complex endeavor because thousands of satellites, orbiting close to Earth and traveling more than 17,000 miles per hour, must work in tandem to seamlessly maintain connections with customers’ dishes and other ground-based infrastructure. While SpaceX has made enormous strides bringing its satellite constellation online, the financial outlook of the business is unclear because SpaceX is a privately held company.

Amazon’s analysts on Wall Street, meanwhile, are apprehensive about the company’s entrance into the market.

The big question is whether it’s too late for Amazon to take on SpaceX.

“Kuiper is going to have a long way to go to catch up to be able to serve a significant part of the market,” Craig Moffett, senior managing director at the research firm MoffettNathanson, told CNN. “It looks like there is a very, very high probability that this will turn out to be too late for it to ever come close to being an attractive investment.”

What’s at stake

The first iteration of Amazon’s Kuiper service will rely on a constellation of about 3,200 satellites.

Each satellite will orbit about 280 miles above Earth, which is slightly lower than the roughly 340-mile altitude at which SpaceX’s Starlink satellites operate.

Both Kuiper and Starlink satellites will operate in a region of space called low-Earth orbit, which is dramatically closer to our planet than where traditional communications satellites operate. For example, companies that have provided Wi-Fi to remote areas or in-flight service for airlines — such as London-based Inmarsat and Carlsbad, California-based Viasat — operate satellites in geosynchronous orbit, located some 22,236 miles from the ground.

Elon Musk’s Starlink gets FAA contract, raising new conflict of interest concerns

At those altitudes, data takes significantly longer to reach customers. That gives low-flying satellites such as Starlink and Kuiper a significant advantage in terms of speed.

SpaceX has already parlayed its Starlink network for several purposes: The constellation connects individual homes and businesses in remote areas and provides connectivity for some airplanes, RVs and even astronauts traveling aboard orbital spacecraft.

It will be difficult for Amazon to attempt to chip away at SpaceX’s dominance, particularly early on in Kuiper’s deployment, as it will take time and money to expand the service, according to Moffett.

An expensive endeavor

Just setting up the first-generation Kuiper system of about 3,200 satellites could cost as much as $17 billion upfront, according to an October report from financial services company Raymond James.

And even if Amazon offsets those costs with revenue after releasing its service, Kuiper could still cost the company a whopping $1 billion to $2 billion per year, according to an April 21 report from Raymond James analyst Josh Beck.

For his part, Moffett does not believe Amazon’s calculus in competing with Starlink is sound. It’s likely too late for Amazon to cash in on the United States’ investments in expanding internet access, and Project Kuiper may give the tech giant all the downsides of operating a satellite megaconstellation without many of the benefits.

Geopolitical concerns

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has already found himself embroiled in geopolitics in ways he has openly said he does not wish to be because of Starlink.

SpaceX has had to grapple, for example, with how and whether to provide services in war zones — and Musk has previously faced significant backlash over his comments about Ukraine.

As the face of Amazon, Jeff Bezos may be a welcome billionaire alternative to Musk on the international scene given Musk’s increasingly hard-line politics and participation in the current Trump administration.

“I certainly imagine that NATO and Ukraine are at least quietly dancing for joy about the idea of having someone other than Elon Musk in the position of providing capacity,” Moffett said.

https://www.kcra.com/article/amazon-launches-project-kuiper-satellites/64619216